Improving Decision Making: Accelerating Inevitable Revelations

So far we have discussed how this applies to how much to spend on marketing and framing the assignment to the media buyer In this post we will apply the principle to the idea of being able to see out further ahead and to bring those insights into todayamp8217s decision making The example we shall focus on is the current situation in US television and digital audience measurementLast year I ran a series of ten posts here predicting that competition would soon arise probably from combinations of thenexisting companies and that the competition like Nielsen itself would hinge upon a panel with big data hung around that panel like spokes on a wheel or to picture it better like Project Blueprint Project Blueprint invented by ESPNamp8217s Artie Bulgrin used a small calibration panel within which all media were measured to correct the duplications among media estimated from larger panels and big data sources in which pairs triplets and quadruplets of media were measured including their duplication patterns between those pairs and among those triplets and quadruplets Thus although the realdata calibration panel was small the overall measurement was much larger and by imposing the realdata duplication patterns on the rest of the system it was hoped that the final results would be as accurate as could be gotten with todayamp8217s technologies and research budgetsNielsen reacted to TRA today known as TiVo Research by Nielsen Catalina a method that combined many other data pools with the Nielsen National Peoplemeter panel as the calibration panel in a Project Blueprint way TRATiVo Research today continues to use a very large calibration panel around 2000000 homes and many more devices measured without mixing in other islands of partial data ie only using a home for which it has all the data I predicted that the BlueprintNielsen approach would probably be used by the new competitor possibly comScoreRentrak that would arise and so there would be two large companies both using highly similar methodsThis is now what has happened comScore has acquired Rentrak and will be offering a Project Blueprint type approach facing off with Nielsenamp8217s ownSince most people in the industry are not researchers the nuances of the methods used sink to the bottom of the buzz pile and most of the feedback being given to the two competitors has to do with keeping their prices down The most serious researchers have risen to the top of the heap and run departments where they too must be concerned about price above all else since in the past half century Nielsen has driven up the cost of ratings poker to a degree that would have seemed unthinkable even 20 years ago And now without showing all its cards Nielsen is hinting that the future will be even more expensive Why Because Nielsen will have to continue increasing sample size partially by reusing local data in national reports partially by fusion and partially by real sample size increase and will need to make deals with hardware companies that control pools of data such as Roku and many others Nielsen continues to hope to be able to get set top box data VOD data and network digital server data at a lower cost than it will charge for it once it has massaged it into the ultimate cakeTwo points are being made by most of the industry players to both Nielsen and comScore You better have the lower price and you better be able to prove you have the better service amp8211 which is where MRC will play a crucial role But the sticky little research details are not yet being discussed This is what we mean by the use of decision systems which allow factors which will later be crucial to stay in the sidelines when by being brought forward they would greatly accelerate inevitable revelationsWhat are those research details that ought to be brought to the fore ASAPWhat is the nature of the comScoreamp8217s Total Home sample Is it an area probability sample How does its response rate compare with Nielsen The current comScore calibration sample is only around 400 homes but that is enough to get a clear indication of the kind of response rate it will get MRC indicates that Nielsenamp8217s national intab sample achieves 50 up from an estimated 24 last centuryWhy doesnamp8217t Total Home which covers usage in home but not out of home also measure out of home which it could easily do by licensing the proven Symphony Advanced Media downloadable app technologyAs the industry moves from eyeballs to ROI are small calibration panels really the ultimate method that will sustain the industry and why isnamp8217t the allrealdata large panel approach like TRA being consideredBecause we have been trained to believe it the primacy of probability samples we are willing to endure the fact that at least half the country does not participate in surveyspanels and the psychological characteristics which cause them to not participate must be related to the kinds of programs sites apps and brands they use and the kinds of ads that move them to buy These people do get measured by big data however So we say with the comfort that it is orthodoxy amp8220Only a probability sample gives us the assurance of representativenessamp8221 which is true except that the half of the population that is not included research noncooperators is therefore not represented To which the universal reaction is to look for some soft sand in which to comfort the headYears from now this will all be obvious and nobody will remember that the point was made years earlier Better thinking about how to set up decision processes can prevent such absurdityImage at top courtesy of Corbis The opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillageMyersBizNet management or associated bloggers

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Improving Decision Making: Accelerating Inevitable Revelations

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