New Economy, Old Behaviors: A Fork in the Road for Advanced Media – The Shelly Palmer Report

Here39s what39s supposed to happen The digital transition takes place new 4G networks spring up all over the place tons of VC money is aimed at advanced advertising and personal media consumption devices audiences fragment into unbelievably small markets but technological advances in metrics and accountability take the art of marketing to new quantitative levels by 2020 we live in a wireless world that is so network and cloudoriented that it could only be recognized by Captain KirkEveryone is so excited about cloud computing quotfat pipesquot tubes for Ted Stevens fans IPprovisioned services fast wireless networks dynamic and addressable advertising itamp8217s really fun to be in the technology media and entertainment consulting biz But here39s the thing It39s not going to happen like that In fact it may not happen at all And if it does think 50 years out not 12First for the sake of this thought experiment I am going to assume that the worldwide financial crisis becomes manageable and that we are not thrown into a depression for the next ten years It39s no fun to think about that kind of world and when asked I like to charge money for my answers to those kinds of questionsSecond for the sake of this thought experiment let us assume that all of the technology we need to accomplish everything we are talking about exists As a practical matter it does There are two reasons most of the stuff we think we need has not been deployed amp8211 business rules and ROI And as you will see these two constraints truly govern the futureOK let39s get started Everything amp8211 and I do mean everything begins and ends with the consumer My friend Terry Denson at Verizon likes to say quotDeployed innovation must equal consumer aspirationquot I absolutely agree The pushback to that statement is always quotThat39s the job of advertising and marketingquot True enough but all of this operates under the tacit assumption that the economic climate is conducive to doing businessThese past few weeks average Americans who are considered well off if their net worth can be described in terms of hundreds of thousands 105 That39s 1 followed by 5 zeros had to learn to speak with dispassionate intellectual comprehension of numerical values several orders of magnitude larger like billions 109 1 followed by 9 zeros and more remarkably trillions amp8211 1012 1 followed by 12 zeros It is unlikely that any of us can emotionalize or visualize the idea of a trillion of anything Let alone dollars that are earned one at a timeLayoffs the credit crunch consumer confidence lack of true leadership general mistrust of everything and everyone is starting to take its toll on the economy People are starting to demonstrate behaviors that are antithetical to acceptance of anything unfamiliar Change may be the only constant but right now the changes seem to be regressive People are staying home more Possibly because they can39t afford to go out or more likely they are afraid to overextend Consumers are not buying anything they donamp8217t need Hopefully this is a kneejerk reaction to the immediate issues and not a trend And consumers are seeking comfort and safety at a level that is seldom seenI39ll leave the business and retail analysis of the preceding paragraph to experts in consumer buying trends You don39t have to look much farther than your email inbox to see offers of dozens of polls and surveys on the subjectWhat interests me is the impact all of this may have on the immediate future trajectory of media consumption Specifically the behaviors that are not going to evolve because consumers are scared busy digging in and adopting a defensive attitude For example if you were going to purchase a new laptop with a big hard drive and excellent video card which is perfect for watching Internet Television and you decide that you can keep your three year old Dell for another year or so until the economy turns around what won39t you experience that would have changed the way you are supposed to consume media in the future Same question about your PDA or mobile phone same question about hooking up your computer to your television monitor same question about your new car with advanced GPS features and on and on How will this behavioral regression impact our technological futureWithout consumer demand will we be able to afford major overhauls to the wired and wireless broadband infrastructure What innovations are likely which will truly never be realized For example It would be great to rebuild the cable and telco infrastructure to allow for switched digital television service That was one of the early promises of IPTV Efficiency is achieved by sending you only the signal you ask for not every signal at once But as a practical matter hard drives and settop boxes are way less expensive than laying cable and buying switches Are we going to see quotson of PointCastquot 199039s push technology forwarding content to settop DVR39s with their hard drives working in the background Push technology in the future You betIs it possible that good oldfashioned linear broadcasting in Primetime might actually have a resurgence amp8230 an overall ratings uptick as people stay home and look for programming that they can watch together New familyoriented comedies MaybeBut the gnawing question remains quotWhat isn39t going to happen because consumers don39t adopt new behaviorsquot And the required followup question is quotWithout consumer aspiration what technological advanced are worth rewriting and reworking ailingbutfunctional business models without the promise of reasonable ROIquot Just something else to think while you work on making your numbers for Q4 2008Shelly Palmer is Managing Director of Advanced Media Ventures Group LLC and the author of Television Disrupted The Transition from Network to Networked TV 2006 Focal Press Shelly is also President of the National Academy of Television Arts ampamp Sciences NY the organization that bestows the coveted Emmyamp174 Awards He is the ViceChairman of the National Academy of Media Arts ampamp Sciences an organization dedicated to education and leadership in the areas of technology media and entertainment Palmer also oversees the Advanced Media Technology Emmyamp174 Awards which honors outstanding achievements in the science and technology of advanced media You can read Shellyamp8217s blog here Shelly can be reached at shellypalmernetCheck out the Shelly Palmer Report archive

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New Economy, Old Behaviors: A Fork in the Road for Advanced Media – The Shelly Palmer Report

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