Progress: Who Will Pay the Price?

This time it may be different As a member of the quot1quotamp160it39s easy to understand and receive the benefits of an always connected all access everything everywhere world enabled by technology but it39s the velocity of change that may sow the seeds of catastrophe There was an 80year gap between the first passenger train and the first automobile and another 30 years before the first commercial passenger flight Fiftyfive years after that Neil Armstrong stepped on the surface of the moon amp160Threeamp160years later Eugene Cernan stepped off the moon amp160We have not been back amp160Eightamp160years after that we had the first IBM PCThirtysix years later things have sped up a little too quickly for some The acceleration in computing power bandwidth and device distribution has created some of the most powerful enterprises in history and threatens to devastate others The disruptors through their ingenuity rather than by a monopoly of natural resources or the favors of government have employed thousands but may disenfranchise millions They have created convenience and access to everything from information to goods often at a competitive price yet transferred value and profit out of countless organizations and replaced it with narrowly distributed wealth amp160It could even be argued that their own growth has been partly responsible for broadly anemic economic growth and the most inequitable distribution of wealth in 300 yearsFor the benefits of change to be equitable it needs to be shared amp160Growth is rarely propelled by increasing the percentage of people employed in minimum wage service jobs amp160Growth is rarely propelled by most large enterprises cutting costs to satisfy a narrowly focused investment community amp160It39s especially perturbing to read of stock prices rising on the back of massive job cuts amp160Itamp8217s interesting to note that the equity markets value Google or Apple more highly than Ford GM Walmartamp160and The Walt Disney Company combined amp160Sixtythousand people work for Google Three million work for the others amp160Our most powerful institutions are now corporate rather than governmental There are only two countries with a billion or more people but 10 or more software applications used daily at the same or greater scaleSlow decline and substitution is a difficult but manageable concept amp160The real fear is that this time that decline is headed to a cliff edge amp160Think about this Sears anchors one end of a mall amp160Sears is in deep deep trouble amp160Sears closes foot traffic falls at nearby stores amp160The Sears workers and customers are gone the other stores nearby cut also amp160Macy39s is at the other end of the mall amp160Macy39s is in trouble amp160Let39s say Macy39s closes amp160Without the anchors the ship lists the ship sinks The stores close the restaurants close the multiplex closes the jobs evaporate amp160The parking lots empty the gas stations close the value of real estate collapses amp160It goes on amp160It goes badly amp160Very badlyIf one mall goes all the retailers and suppliers have one less node across which to amortize their costs amp160This is the network effect in reverse amp160It39s the domino effect amp160Play this out a little further amp160It39s been said that 95 of privately owned vehicles are parked for 95 of the time amp160It39s hard to imagine inefficiency on a wider scale amp160It39s an open invitation to autonomous vehicles and the sharing economy amp160Progress but what happens to the aggregate demand for vehicles What happens to the oil price to the 75000 employees of Exxon Mobil and the 200000 employees of General Motors For context the Union of Automobile Workers represented 15 million people in 1979 today it39s less than 500000 excluding retirees of which there are 900000 amp160An aging population relying on an everreducing population in everpoorly paid employmentLet39s turn back to time amp160Amazon went public 20 years ago and toppled the first domino the main street book and record store amp160Autonomous vehicles a fantasy then but a reality now will be somewhat commonplace in five years A quarter of a century of progress but the seeds of something darker with little light at the end of the tunnel except for the burning torches of nationalism competing with some rather dystopian global corporate ambitionsThis is a pessimistic view of the world but not one that blames the bringers of change amp160If there is blame to be laid it is at the feet of government and populations the first for focusing on the single goal of being elected at any price using a combination of rabble rousing and questionable dataamp160the second for a failure of collective consciousness that might enable collective progress amp160How can it be okayamp160to disinvest in education at a time where the only alternative to learning is atrophy amp160How can it be okayamp160to close borders and deny freedoms when only a diverse collective can create opportunity amp160How can it be okayamp160to defund government programs other than the military amp160How can it be okayamp160to operate regressive taxation policies that only serve to widen the gap amp160It39s come to something when the Gates and Zuckerberg Foundations are as or more powerful in disease control as the World Health OrganizationThe optimists view of the future is that technology will unlock ideas and accelerate new product development that will reenergize manufacturing maker movements and sustainable food production that will fuse the imagination of people with the speed and intelligence of machines Progress that will create new employment and income and the ability for the many to pay for and enjoy new products and services All this is possible but demands that policy wins over politics before itamp8217s too late That policy needs to deal with the needs of today39s industry not yesterday39s It needs fiscal policy to address the reality of income and capital distribution creating remedies without impeding entrepreneurial spirit and specifically enabling job creation Of course it would be wholly inaccurate not to finish with the observation that the great disruptors are also leading the great renaissance Amazonamp160through its frictionless logistics has enabled small businesses to reach large markets Amazon Studios has created demand for content creators The same is true of Google through Adwords and YouTube and for Facebook a platform on which countless small enterprises dependWith great power comes great responsibility amp160It needs to be wielded wisely and generouslyIf you like read this great post on a similar theme but with a different angleClick the social buttons above or below to share this content with your friends and colleaguesThe opinions and points of view expressed in this article are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated bloggersamp160

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Progress: Who Will Pay the Price?

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Rob Norman

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Progress: Who Will Pay the Price?

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