The First Programmatic Upfront Looking Like 2017

For example in 1979 when the threenetwork share had only dropped a half a share point to 895 I had called the 1990 threenetwork 600 primetime share on the noseamp160In the prior Media Village post I flogged myself for having predicted in 1999 that 2005 would be the first programmatic Upfront That and my expectation that addressable TV commercials would roll out by 2000 are my two biggest goofs as a media predictorI promised to come back in this post with a better prediction on the programmatic part Actually it looks now as if the two will arrive together that is addressables and programmatic Upfronts TV ad sellers are already hard at work building infrastructure to be able to automate their businesses before Google Facebook or somebody else does it for them Brian Weiser on April 24 pointed out that those two companies and their easytouse programmatic platforms now dominate more than 40 of nonsearch digital advertising amp8230 more than 30 billion between them in 2014 This is a demonstration more of the power of programmatic than of great advertising salesmanship or of superior ROI proofThe networks are concerned It has never been this threatening for the network business Jack Myers has kindly permitted this disclosure from the projections he provides to his clientsAverage annual growth for broadcast TV network advertising 20152020Total 01Legacy 52Digital 237In other words the broadcast networks are predicted to stay flat but only because they will be borne up by the value of their digital inventory Right now the measurement currency on that broadcast TV network digital inventory is uncertain amp8212 Nielsen Digital Ad Ratings comScore Nielsen SVODOTT server side data from the sellers themselves SymphonyAM Rentrak TiVo Research et al or any intercombinations could turn out to become the currency of the future for OTT and for everything elseThese stats are persuasive drivers to encourage executives to invest in programmatic systems that can bring Internetstyle addressability targeting and measurement to TV Networks would be wise to make revshare deals with MVPDs to bring addressability to network inventory This is the one factor that can strongly reverse the 5 per year present decline rate of broadcast network TV nondigital ad revenues If broadcast network TV went addressable it would go to doubledigit annual growth That will happen after the first programmatic Upfront it would appear But you the reader might be able to bring it about soonerGiven the decline on one side and the cyclopean growth of programmatic system ad revenues on the other side the handwriting is finally clearly on the wall Programmatic and addressable TV will at last scale upWhy 2017 These things canamp8217t be built overnight There are a host of details to be worked out that cannot be rushed without leaving some money in someone elseamp8217s pocket The fact that we see them being built is evidence that the change is really happening Given how long it has taken me to build systems like these in the 90s Next Century Mediaamp8217s OptiMark addressable TV optimizer anticipated the programmatic systems of today 2017 is the logical predictionWhat does it mean to say that 2017 will probably be the first programmatic Upfront My definition is that at least one leading player will be selling some significant amount of nondigital TV inventory programmatically in a successful way assuring that all the others will have to soon followPS In last weekamp8217s post I also promised to write more about the measurement of roomleaving during commercials However that seems best left for an upcoming post since it is a big subject all in itselfamp160The opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of Media Village management or associated bloggersamp160 amp160

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The First Programmatic Upfront Looking Like 2017

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Bill Harvey

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