The Four Forces Driving Future Change

The Four Shifts An OverviewThis is the first of a series on The Four Shifts already underway that will revolutionize every aspect of society and businessamp1601 Technology Shifts2 Power Shifts3 Boundary Shifts4 Mind ShiftsTechnology ShiftsToday a series of revolutionary technologies have all reached a critical momentumEach one interacts with the other creating exponential advancesa Artificial Intelligence Over the past decade AI has been progressing at a rapid pace doubling its capability every 10 to 14 months One flavor of AI Regenerative AI as illustrated by Chat GPT and DallE2 has seized the imagination and indicate the revolutionary potential of these technologiesb Gene Therapy Building on a detailed understanding of the human genome and leveraging modern computational power and AI we have already seen the first break through drugs in the BioNTech and Moderna MRNA vaccinesc 5G The smart phone and continuous connectivity have reconfigured business and consumer behavior this past decade Two aspects of 5G in 200X faster speeds and almost zero latency to less than 1 nano second will turbo charge this impact Remote surgery and ultrasmall devices connected at blazing speeds to computation in the cloud will enable a range of new devices and behaviorsd Blockchain While tarnished by the crash of crypto and the Ponzi like nature of many projects the underlying mathematics and potential of the Blockchain continues to be invested in not just by Silicon Valley but all the major banks and many large companiesThese are just four of the key technologies that have advanced dramatically over the past few years both independently from and intertwined with each otherPower ShiftsDriven in part by technology and in part by demographics power is moving from the center to the edge in three significant waysa From the West to the East Earlier this week I was in India for the first time in 3 years and on a drive from Thane about 30 miles from Bombay to the city reminded me of being in Shanghai a decade or more ago Infrastructure everywhere Temples were optimized for digital donations Food delivery was not just fast but intercity Almost every friend wished they were 30 years old again The optimism and momentum were infectiousThe same feeling was felt on trips to Singapore and other parts of Asia China while challenged is going to continue to rise And even as companies reallocate resources out of China they still have significant presence there and much of the reallocation is to India Vietnam and other Asian countries Companies like Starbucks see China as a key to their futureAfrica is the only continent whose population will increase significantly in the next 25 years from 13 billion to nearly 2 billion plus people accounting for 25 percent of the worldamp8217s population by 2050 and potentially 40 percent of the worldamp8217s population by the end of the decadeGlobalization continues but shifts to a multipolar globalization with many seats of power and impact such as China and India today and Nigeria and other countries tomorrowb From Institutions to Individuals Technology and individual agility is moving power from institutions to individuals In every industry we see empowered customers and consumers armed with data technology and networks Blockchain and AI technologies will exponentially empower individuals and smaller firms in most casesc From Consolidated to Fragmented We may have seen peak returns to scale in many industries While scale continues to matter greatly the top 2 or 3 leaders in every industry appear to be losing share to several upstarts serving a range of different needs Moats like a social graph did not prevent TikTok from impacting Facebook ChatGPT may enable Bing to gain share over Google One of the most interesting things about Search Engine Marketing is that it works because Search does not work well enough If you got what you were looking for would you click around trying to find the answerBoundary ShiftsThe future does not fit in the containers of the past Technology and globalization are like hydrochloric acid They burn through boundaries We see digital leakagea The OfficeHome Boundary Two years after a vaccine most downtown offices have 50 percent or less occupancy Nearly 15 percent of employees have moved 500 miles from where they had worked prior to Covid Companies are either totally remote or amp8220Hybridamp8221 with 40 percent or so of time being mandated for in person interaction to maximize culture learning delivery standards and ideation Very few servicebased companies will ever go back to 2019 And even inperson interaction is often at events restaurants and offsite with offices themselves being completely redesignedb Blurring of Behaviors If you watch a video on TikTok and click on an ad which has an embedded commerce call to action allowing you to pick up the product from a local Walmart how does one that define this by the old rules of marketing and customer journey Was it online TikTok or offline Walmart pick up Was it above the line a brand ad or below the line a sale Was it video or mobile or ecommerce or social People have changed and most companies are organized for a world of clean lines versus blurred lines Today every point of contact is both a tattoo moment to build a brand and complete a salec MultiDimensional Companies For the last couple of days I was at CES Consumer Electronics Show where I had the opportunity to speak to the leadership of many companies to help frame their learning journeysWalking around it was so clear that companies were now morphing into multidimensional players Huge signs for Samsung Ads Netflix Ads Best Buy Ads and much more were everywhere Amazon Ads now had their own location and no longer were bundled with Amazon Web services and the momentum of Walmart Connect was spoken about What were technology streaming and retail companies were also now advertising juggernauts combining their first party data customer knowledge brand reputations and willingness to partner to create a new multidimensional landscapeMind ShiftsHuman minds are like champagne corks With new experiences and interactions they swell and expand And they no longer fit back into the bottle they emerged fromDuring the past 1000 days everybody in the world has gone through a social health government business and personal crisis because of COVID rapidly shifting economies and other changesThis has exposed the fault lines in society and business that existed before 2019 New technology breakthroughs and work behaviors have created secondary and tertiary shocks and people are differentThe future does not fit in the mindsets of the pasta Generational Mindshift Recently I completed the first chapter of my new book which will be published globally by McGrawHill in 2024 called ReThinking Work The opening chapter begins with a deep dive into the societal changes including the fact that for the first time in modern history four or even five generations will be working together After completing research on one area which was the generational differences between Gen ZMillennials and GenXBaby Boomers what was vividly clear is that most businesses are focusing on almost all the wrong things as they try to get their employees reengagedMost boards and political leaders are Boomers and GenX which explains a lot of the rumble in the work jungle and the political worldb The Role of Work Work is important and people are willing to work hard quotQuiet Quittingquot is less about quitting work then quitting bosses While companies are grappling with where people work most folks are asking Why do they work Who do they work for When do they work And most importantly What is WorkNext Week The Implications of The Four ShiftsWhat will the implications of the Four Shifts be on individuals governments and business as they accelerate intertwine and morph If strategy is quotfuture competitive advantagequot how do individuals leaders and companies ensure relevance and resonance in the coming worldClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet

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Rishad Tobaccowala

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