Wall St. Speaks Out on 4Q Ad Trends - Pivotal Research Group

Here39s what we think we know so farInternetrelated advertising likely accelerated in 4Q14 vs 3Q14 with what we think was probably around 19 yearoveryear growth in the quarter up from more like 17 growth in the third quarter For the full year total digital advertising rose by 16 on these estimates For the year industrylevel growth was relatively broad with very similar growth whether or not we include the two dominant players Google and Facebook However we expect that in the longrun both take share from most of the others As we39ve previously noted web endemics drove much of the growth yet again with likely more than 25 year over year growth during the quarter from the likes of Google Amazon EBay Expedia IAC and othersMeanwhile national TV advertising looked worse in the fourth quarter than it did in the third but not by much and not far from where we thought it would play out when we made our last round of estimates in December At the time buyers we were in touch with suggested the market for national TV could be down by as much as 5 but instead it appears that national TV primarily broadcast network and national cable advertising declined by only 1 yearoveryear in 4Q14 compared with essentially flat yearoveryear trends in 3Q14 Our forecast was for closer to 2 For the full year national TV grew by around 5 or by more like 2 if we exclude incremental revenues associated with the Olympics Such a growth rate isn39t all that bad if we consider that total advertising is growing around this level on an annual basisAs for other media radio and outdoor advertising looked essentially flat for the quarter and year while national print declined by high single digits our composite of magazine publishers based on data from Meredith and Time Inc showed like for like declines of 9 for the quarter and 8 for the year Interestingly the one standout quottraditionalquot media was direct mail as the US Postal Service grew its revenues from standard mail amp8211 the primary form used by advertisers amp8211 rose by 8 on the quarter and 5 on the year Although most of these gains can be ascribed to political advertising more than half of the growth in the fourth quarter and pricing gains most of the other half the fact that a traditional deadtree medium continues to grow in any form reflects the growing role for datadriven marketing and the growing presence of datadriven marketers across the advertising economyREPORT INCLUDING DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND HERE Madison and Wall 22715pdf Brian Wieser is a Senior Analyst at Pivotal Research Group where he covers securities which are impacted by the advertising economy including Facebook Google Yahoo Interpublic Omnicom WPP Publicis Nielsen CBS Viacom and Discovery Communications Brian can be reached at brianpvtlcom amp160Read all Brian39s MediaBizBloggers commentaries at Brian Wieser39s Pivotal ReportCheck us out on Facebook at MediaBizBloggerscomFollow our Twitter updates MediaBizBloggerThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaBizBloggerscom management or associated bloggers MediaBizBloggers is an open thought leadership platform and readers may share their comments and opinions in response to all commentaries

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Wall St. Speaks Out on 4Q Ad Trends - Pivotal Research Group

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