Cinema Predictions - Alex Petrilli-TiVo

amp160We first took notice of this correlation in September of 2011 when the latest quotcan39t missquot Sarah Jessica Parker film I Don39t Know How She Does It was set to open The fastforward rate almost jumped out of our TiVo StopWatch portal with a 204 rate This was unusually high for a theatrical release Not surprisingly the box office followed suit opening at 6 for the weekend of September 17 2011 scrounging up 44 million The Avengers amassed a total of 44 million on a Tuesday afternoonamp8230 in Des MoinesAs we investigated further we found the theatrical advertising fastforward rate prior to a film39s open provides some insight into box office performance In short it can tell you whether the film will be showing on your next flight or notThe next movie that made an inglorious debut was the remake of multiple remakes The Three Musketeers From Summit Entertainment the film boasted an international cast including Orlando Bloom and Milla Jovovich and yet the initial fastforward rate during the week of September 19 2011 was 20 As was reported in Deadline Hollywood the fastforwarding signaled trouble for the swashbuckling epicFastforward rate can also work the other way too and reveal a hit A successful fastforward rate will drop below 12 Two recent examples are The Hunger Games which scored an 118 fastforward rate in its initial broadcast campaign and The Avengers delivering a 103 fastforward rate Although expectations were high for these films there are no guarantees Just ask Warner about Wrath of the Titans or Relativity with Julia Robert39s Mirror Mirror or the Tom Hanks vehicle from Universal Larry Crowne or Disney39s John Carter with an initial fastforward rate of 177 and todate box office tally of 72 million for a film that cost 250 million That probably explains why it is playing on my United flight today June 10 when the film opened on March 9Of course the system like the Electoral Congress is not perfect Films geared towards children and horror movies are very hard to gauge Animated film campaigns typically air the lion39s share of their spots on kids networks where there is a lower tendency to fastforward even in timeshifted programming While horror films appeal to such a niche genre it is difficult to determine their box office potentialMovie spots are a critical element in determining a film39s success or failure during the opening weekend so it is surprising to see how repetitious they have become Creative campaigns are few and far between but when they deliver it can be the difference between a strong open and quotToday39s feature on our flight will be Larry Crowne ReturnsquotThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaBizBloggerscom management or associated bloggers MediaBizBloggers is an open thought leadership platform and readers may share their comments and opinions in response to all commentaries

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Cinema Predictions - Alex Petrilli-TiVo

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