Nielsen Proves that Accuracy Cannot Be Affordably Sacrificed

The Advertising Research Foundation ARF in partnership with Sequent Partners annual Marketing Analytics Accelerator Conference is aimed at helping the industry more quickly identify the best paths to producing and measuring business outcomes from advertising They continue to do a great jobAt last weekamp8217s 2024 conference Nielsen Senior Vice President Kristin Vento showed a most revealing slide in her presentation with Adam Isselbacher Senior Vice President Group Director Research ampamp Analytics IPG Mediabrandsamp8217 UM Nielsen far from their image among the uninitiated is a leader in the use of big data having 50 million households of big data plus over 20 spinetospine integrations with major media platforms like Amazon covering more than 3 out of 4 US households with censuslevel data for some measurements where integrations are not in place yet the proportion is lower The panel AI streaming meter common device correction watermarks wearable PPMs and other methods are uniquely used by Nielsen to adjust the big data and thereby create currencyThe question Iamp8217ve always had is how different would the results be if Nielsen didnamp8217t use all that other stuff to adjust the big data What if they dropped all that other stuff and just reported the big data they have acquiredKristin showed the slide below which compares the published final currency against what Nielsen would report from its own big data acquired from others What it shows is that 59 of the time the program rating would differ by more than 20 between the big data on its own vs the big data after calibration by the Nielsen suite Exact agreement occurs only 08 of the time Coming within 10 only happens 227 of the timeAlthough the Nielsen big data are the heart of the data without calibration they are far offKristin pointed out that these errors on the part of uncalibrated big data would carry over into outcomes measurement Ad exposure data is the foundation of the house If it is wrong so will be the MMM MTA singlesource random control trial and any other outcome method The outcome results used to make multimillion dollar decisions will be wrong The decisions will be wrong The wrongdoers will be punished The brands will be illservedWhy is it that the big data on its own amp8211 with reweighting to offset demographic biases and the best of other methodologies for cleaning editing and projecting the data amp8211 is so far from the Nielsen currency So much of the viewing is by streaming and only Nielsen has a streaming meter The smart TV data are purposely incomplete for cost reasons There are many other causes but those are primaryKristin also reported from Nielsenamp8217s annual marketing survey of advertisers that only about a third of advertisers are using measurement data in which TV and digital are both includedAdam Isselbacher highlighted the critical role of maximizing crossplatform measurement precision to fully capture ROI variations across channels brand categories diverse audience segments and markets Isselbacher emphasized that consumption habits can vary greatly across countries requiring tailored datadriven approaches to measurement Drawing on Nielsenamp8217s largest brand equity study to date conducted in collaboration with IPG Mediabrandsamp8217 UM Isselbacher discussed how this expansive effortamp8212spanning over 25 countries and languages with global sample of more than 150000 respondentsamp8212helped define leading indicator media metrics that drive fullfunnel brand equity metrics ultimately improving higher ROIamp8220Robust wellcalibrated data is the backbone for actionable insights that elevate media planning to build brand equity and ROIamp8221 Isselbacher explained reinforcing the necessity of combining traditional and digital touchpoints to ensure accurate and comprehensive measurement By leveraging insights from this extensive study he emphasized the value of data precision and integrated measurement in optimizing campaign success to foster a legacy of strong brand growth while achieving business goals in the neartermAttention I had the pleasure of working with Mars for years at TRA I greatly respect their meticulous approach to measurement and insistence on including incremental sales in measurement I also had the pleasure of working with Realeyes last year in the landmark study for Meta with Eye Square My respect for them is as great based on my experience working together At the ARF Accelerator the other day Joanna Welch Global Mars Horizon Comms Lab Associate Director and Max Kalehoff Chief Growth Officer at Realeyes presented the finding that the use of Realeyes new AIbased product leads to a 3 to 5 sales lift RMT adcontext resonance has shown 36 sales lift according to NCS and RMT adperson resonance 95 sales lift per Neustar The correlation between the Realeyes predictive attention and sales is 062 so that the R2 would be 038 The ARF Cognition Council found that the comparable R2 for RMT is 048 The guidance to the buy side would be to combine these two sales impact predictors amp8211 attention and resonance amp8211 in media selectionI believe these results Realeyes is truly predicting the attention of a piece of creative which enables Mars to not put media money behind some executions Exclusions of creative that would not gain attention should logically increase the budget behind attentiongetting creative Although neuroscience points out that conscious attention to an ad is not absolutely necessary for the ad to have effect because of the importance of the subconscious ads should logically have more effect if they gain attention If they donamp8217t gain attention itamp8217s because they donamp8217t resonate with the subconscious motivational drivers in the viewer If they do gain attention itamp8217s because the subconscious resonated and this drove the viewer to pay attentionJoanna pointed out that with generative AI the number of executions that need to be tested across all of the countries in the world exceeds the scalability of anything other than an AI predictive model which is what the new Realeyes product is Itamp8217s based on past eye tracking at great scale 17 million observations It itself is not eye tracking but an AI model predicting attention And it works The AI not only predicts but it also recommends improvements that could increase an adamp8217s attentiongetting powerJoanna pointed out that before this Realeyes model Mars was only able to pretest 2 of the creative executions it ranOne thing I really like about the new Realeyes model is that it is plugandplay by API I know that Amplified Intelligence has also been using that approach and I expect we will all be using it before longMore AIMichael True CoFounder and CEO of Prescient AI and his client Cameron Bush Head of Advertising at HexClad showed the Prescient AI platform a marketing mix model MMM with Machine Learning ML that overcomes the last click bias of traditional MTA and provides daily campaignlevel output data that in terms of the reporting formats and breakouts looks like both MMM and MTA Pioneer modeler Michael Cohen written up in my recent CIMM Cutting Edge ROI study has another proprietary model with that same reporting featureDataPOEM Founder Bharath Gaddam showed their method which uses Pearlamp8217s Causal Ladder focusing on counterfactuals amp8211 seeing how the results would change by removing one media element or creative executionSteve Cohen Partner In4mation Insights and John Fix Consultant John Fix Ltd showed their new AI product which predicts later touchpoints the consumer will experience with a campaignBranding and SalesMike Menkes Vice President of Customer Engagement Analytic Partners and his client Laura Guerin Sr Director Consumer Analytics SharkNinja showed data proving that brand equity ads outperform product performanceoffer ads in terms of sales amp8211 by 73Analytic Partners has been known as an MMM vendor but today they are practicing Commercial Analytics their term for the integration of diverse metrics which they also characterize as Nested Funnel Modeling They are against the present practice called siloed metrics They showed a grid of media channels and retail channels and examples of halo effect an ad for a brand synergistically benefits a sister brand Leslie Wood first showed me her analyses of halo effects in TRA daysAltogether the conference upheld the level of excellence we think of when we think of ARF and Sequent Jim Spaeth and Alice Sylvester are taking down the Sequent shingle and Alice will continue to consult while Jim gets to retire with his beautiful and brilliant family A happy ending Hopefully with endless reunions The media research community contains great love and bonds that will never be severedPosted at MediaVillage through the Thought Leadership selfpublishing platformClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillageorgMyersBizNet

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Nielsen Proves that Accuracy Cannot Be Affordably Sacrificed

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