Playing Games with the Census: Why Business Should Pay Attention

Stalin made it easy by doing the bookcooking in secret Trump is trying to fix up the data in plain sightamp160 Last year his goto guy for the task Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross ordered department officials to add a politically loaded question on citizenship to the 2020 censusamp160 Ross backhanded the advice from his own Census Bureau survey experts statisticians as well as state and local leadersamp160 All warned the question would lower the countamp160 Two dozenplus states cities and counties sued to stop Ross and wonamp160 The Supreme Court just recently heard the appealBecause business has a stakeamp160Nielsen the pioneer in data science and survey research over more than a century spoke out on the issue publicly and in a friend of the court briefamp160 David Kenny the company39s CEO put it this way amp160quotAdding an untested question to this census is bad science and will likely lead to a significant undercount of the US populationamp160 In particular we believe that young multicultural people a consumer segment that will beamp160theamp160main driver of economic growth for the next decade are at great risk of being underrepresentedquotamp160amp160There39s no doubt of course what Trump and his Republican Party are afteramp160 It39s a sophisticated political ploy but hardly subtleamp160 The goal was clear from the start when Ross fibbed to Congress testifying that Justice Department officials had requested the question to help enforce the Voting Rights Actamp160 Emails showed Ross had asked them to make the requestamp160 Citizenship is a loaded questionamp160 There39s no disputeamp160 It will dampen census participation among immigrant groups lessening their talliesamp160amp160You don39t have to be a data scientist to see why asking will hurtamp160Immigrant populations have family and personal ties including to the undocumented that will give them pause if they see answering a citizenship question as a riskamp160 They need to be in the countamp160 It39s not because immigration is a hotbutton issueamp160 Accuracy in the decennial survey is vital governments at all levels will use the census as a benchmark over the next decade in decisionmaking and to produce other important economic reportsamp160 Inaccuracy willamp160affect everything from how federal funding is divvied up to reapportionment of congressional seatsRoss has dismissed the accuracy issueamp160 That raises the obvious question Why doesn39t he care if the census gets it wrongamp160 The answer Since Trump39s election polls show new immigrants who are naturalized citizens irrespective of their origin significantlyamp160favor the Democratic Partyamp160 When it comes to future elections depressing census participation just might be crucial in states where immigrant numbers are highestamp160 Undercounting will affect how congressional seats are allocated in states likeamp160Californiaamp160where 27 percent of the population is foreignbornChanging the census in a way that magnifies inaccuracies isn39t only about advantaging one party over anotheramp160 Just as Nielsen39s CEO alluded it39s also likely to cost businesses that need to have a grip on economic trendsamp160 Corporate analysts rely on government reports from inflation to employment trends as the foundation for their own researchamp160 The census is the bedrock beneath those official studies making its accuracy and completeness importantamp160 The same goes for any effort to understand the market in finergrain detailTake the task facing businesses that succeed by targeting their markets such as the urban Millennials in multicultural environments in finegrained detailamp160 Building their own surveys that can help them create effective marketing advertising and outreach programs for their products or services requires knowing who39s where and what economic and social data say about their interestsamp160amp160The task will only get harder if the accuracy of the census already challenged by the longer termamp160decline in participationamp160amp160degradesNielsen39s prescient warningamp160about the consequences of the proposed citizenship question carries another messageamp160 The future will not be like the pastamp160 In 25 years if the trends revealed by previous census results are a guide the United States will be a majority minority nationamp160 Just like the past our ability to tap that diversity will drive our successamp160 To do so however business as well as government will need to understand the full array of Americans39 needs talents and interestsamp160 2019 isn39t the time for political gameplaying that will undermine a vital tool to help us do just thatClick the social buttons above or below to share this story with your friends and colleaguesThe opinions and points of view expressed in this content are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated writers

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Playing Games with the Census: Why Business Should Pay Attention

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Kent M. Harrington

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Playing Games with the Census: Why Business Should Pay Attention

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