Rishad’s Thoughts on Strategy

What will the future look like What will people need and expect How will demographics technology and other global shifts create new competitors or recharge current competitors and how will categories blur blend and maybe even disappearAmidst these new expectations and changing competitive dynamics what advantage will your company offer A differentiated or better product A competitive moat of network effects scale or some other dynamic A better experience Speed and valueWhile Strategy firms can be amazingly helpful in guiding companies through these questions most leaders already have a gut instinct on what needs to be done The deep dive documents the chanting strategists and the long march of meetings are to bring others along and to provide an intellectual and analytical framework for a decision that clearly had to be madeIf you work for a firm and you have an idea of where the future is going and how changing peopleamp8217s expectations and emerging technology are going to create challenges or opportunities you should go to your management and share your thinkingAll you need to talk about is future competitive advantageSome key future trends to help build new strategies or interrogate existing strategiesWilliam Shakespeare has great advice to anyone who aims to be a strategist In his play Julius Caesar he writesWe at the height are ready to declineThere is a tide in the affairs of menWhich taken at the flood leads on to fortuneOmitted all the voyage of their lifeIs bound in shallows and in miseriesOn such a full sea are we now afloatAnd we must take the current when it servesOr lose our venturesSimply stated pay close attention to shifting trends and tides and make sure you align your venture with where the tide is goingThere are three unstoppable trends that every company and individual must align with wherever they are in the world regardless of the industry in which they compete 1 Globalization with a new flavor 2 The Three Demographic Divides and 3 The Third Connected Age of Technology1 Globalization with a new flavorGlobalization will continue to thrive despite the hand wringing of Western institutions and periodicals However it will no longer be a unipolar form of Globalization driven by the West but a multipolar mix significantly impacted by Asia primarily China and India who between them account for a third of global population and possibly half of future growthBy the end of 2018 only twoamp160of the busiest container shipping ports in the world were in the West Rotterdam in the Netherlands at Noamp16012 and Los Angles at No 18At current fertility rates Africaamp8217s population will increase from 12 billion to 2 billion in 2050 and 4 billion in 2100 becoming home to almost half of the world39s populationJust as Earth is not the center of the universe the West while being critically important is unlikely to be the center of globalization that the world revolves around with less than 10 of the population and a third of the global GDP soon declining to less than 252 The Three Demographic Divides a The Divide of RaceEthnicity b The Divide of Urban and Ruralamp160and c The Divide of GenerationsThese quotdividesquotamp160in the US were most recently seen during the presidential election Look carefully and it was not quotRed Statequotamp160or quotBlue Statequotamp160but rather UrbanRural CaucasianNonCaucasian and YoungOldThe population of the United States next year under 18 years old will be multiethnic and the country whose population growth has slowed to a crawl of less than 35 in 2020 will continue to become a multiracial mongrel mix of beliefs and dreams that walls and nationalistic rage may seek to make more difficult but cannot truly impede This blend of talents and cultures will be seen not only a key to innovation but a way to remain a leader as a 13 billion plus China continues to accelerateThe most significant and not as well understood of these divides is the worldview differences between those younger than 30 and those older than 55 These differences are replicated in almost every nation as new generations brought up with mobile and social Internet a lack of assets and lower expectations plus a dramatic difference in values and goals from climate change to capitalism come to express themselves and enter the workplace and politics In the US this generation will in the next 10 yearsamp160inherit 30 trillion or 30 of all US Wealth most of it going to a fifth of them and this will add fuel to their burning belief of the need to changeFrom financial products Lemonade Robin Hood Square Bitcoin to fashion Virgil Abloh Kylie Jenner to media usage Twitch TikTok a new language and infrastructure is being forged which will be turbocharged like never before due to the disproportionate and longterm impact of Covid19 on these younger generations Not since the Great Depression have so many young adults lived with their parents In July 52 of young adults ages 18 to 29 years old resided with one or both of their parents surpassing the previous peak in 1940 according to a Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau dataTheir voices do not ring today in boardrooms or councils of power almost all of whom are much older but make no mistake the drumbeats of their reality will soon throb in the bloodstream of every business and political discussionBut in the US it is not just the young but the older to whom not enough attention is being paidEvery day 10000 people turn 65 years old and due to modern medicine will live active lives for 15 to 25 years A segment of them controls most of the wealth in the US while a larger group has no significant assets to retire on Ageism Medical Rationing and many more issues will likely create some intriguing intergenerational dynamicsThese divides occur in every nation Watch Japan as its population declines by over 25 in the next 30 years unless they allow Immigration or Fertility rates change or China grappling with the aging population due to the one Child Policy or countries like India and Egypt challenged to find jobs for their youth3The Third Connected AgeIn 19931994 we entered theamp160First Connected Ageamp160where we wereamp160connected to informationamp160via what would eventually be Search GoogleBaidu andamp160connected to transactionamp160via what would grow to become ECommerce AmazonAlibabaAround 20072008 we entered theamp160Second Connected Ageamp160where due to smart phones AppleSamsung we wereamp160connected all the timeamp160and due to Social Media FacebookWe Chat we wereamp160connected to everybodyThese first two quotConnected Agesquotamp160have impacted everything from Elections to a reranking of the Fortune 500 It has created great wealth and benefits to people and also brought about the destruction of many livelihoods and the middleclass jobs It has enabled Uber Airbnb Dollar Shave Club Remember when Facebook paid just 15 billion dollars for Instagram with its handful of employees That was worth more than the Eastman Kodak market cap on that day when Kodak had tens of thousands of Employees Kodak is now worth half a billion while Instagram is probably the most valuable part of the 800 billion market capitalization of FacebookBut we have not seen anything yet as we enter theamp160Third Connected Ageamp160where we will enjoyamp160four new types of connectionsamp160as data connects to data and writes software AI and all our devices are connected to Supercomputers Cloud with much faster connections 5G and new interfaces to connect Voice today and ARVR tomorrowWhy strategies often fail in implementationCompanies often allocate large swaths of senior management time and budgets for outside specialists to help sculpt strategies and move them forwardA cavalcade of consultants convey and communicate with countless charts creative choices to the CSuiteA flurry of futurists frame focus and filter the way forward with the finesse of fortune tellersMasters of the Universe market MampampA moves that might make multiples move upwards and mean many more millions in marketcapPR professionals produce and promote points of view that provoke the press to perceive with pristine perspectivesThese efforts when successful result in the first three key steps to strategy implementation1amp160amp160 A simple and differentiated strategic blueprint2amp160amp160 An MampampA plan to acquire skills markets and technology3amp160amp160 A reorganization since the future does not fit in the containers of the pastThese are essential ingredients to a recipe of change and growthamp160none of these will work without helping grow and change the people in the organizationBecause while firms are a collection of ideas technologies patents brands ecosystems and people it is people who are the key since they create the ideas technologies patents brands and ecosystemsMichael Tyson said quotEveryone has a plan till they get punched in the facequotBoards and leadership of firms come quickly to the realization thatamp160everything is easy until people get in the wayTelling people that change is good threatening them with job loss if they do not change or creating communication materials and slogans to goad them into a cult like devotion to the new dear leader or the way forward rarely works in the short run and will likely fail after the threat of flagellation fadesBecause if there is nothing in it for them people willamp160outwit outwait outpretend and outmaneuveramp160quotmanagementquotamp160Until then they will fill the time genuflecting and bowing and going through the monitored motions of attending the right meetings muttering the motivational mantras and stating the slogans requiredThe keys to implementing strategyIf a strategy is to be leveraged in ways that transform an organization it is key to remember that the only true transformation happens is when the mindsets and behaviors of the people working for the firm transformIf you want your organization or team to grow and change you will need to ask your team to initiate a a threequestion exercise while leadership b delivers three clear answers to employeesThe Three Question Exercise every team should consider doing so they can both understand get aligned with and contribute to strategy1amp160amp160 How do you expect our customersconsumersmembers needs and expectations to change in the future2amp160amp160 What are our key strengths and weaknesses in meeting and aligning with these shifts3amp160amp160 If we had no constraints except we had to ensure that what we did was legal that it was technologically possible and financially broke even in 3 years or less what products and services would we designThis exercise makes people look up from their day to day and understand risks and opportunities and helps them realize the need for doing things differently As importantly it gets them to contribute and activate the strategy in their areas of competence and expertiseThe Three Clear Answers management needs to deliver to company staff in order to have them align with and implement the strategy1amp160amp160 Why are the recommended changes good for their personal career growth2amp160amp160 What are the monetary or other incentives to change3amp160amp160 When and where will training be provided to help them learn the new skills neededChange does not happen because of MampampA press releases reorganizations or a new leader all of which undoubtedly play a roleAn organization changes and grows when the people in the organization change and growClick the social buttons above or below to share this content with your friends and colleaguesThe opinions and points of view expressed in this content are exclusively the views of the author andor subjects and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNet Inc management or associated writersamp160amp160

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Rishad’s Thoughts on Strategy

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Rishad Tobaccowala

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