SHELLY PALMER REPORT: The 1st InfoWar: Antigua's Copyright Threat and the Virtualization of Value

This week the government of Antigua threatened to unleash hell on the information economy Well kind of amp8230 they39re threatening to repeal intellectual property treaties with the United States and to allow massive copyright infringement on the island if the US doesn39t hasten its response to pending trade disputes In short they are threatening to copy quotvirtually anything that can duplicatedquot The reason for the threat of InfoWar according to a representative of the Island is that the United States is not negotiating fairly in a dispute over Internet gambling Apparently we owe Antigua 21 million dollars and they really want the money If they don39t get it they will tightenup our debt by stealing music movies and other intellectual property Oh no amp8230 pirates in the Caribbean All right this isn39t really that funny The government of Antigua is pissed and they want us to know it I39m sure that our bureaucrats and their bureaucrats will work it out in some bureaucratic way What interests me is why anyone would think that there is one piece of intellectual property anywhere in the world that is not already available online free for the taking Every piece of music I39ve ever heard of is available for free online Every major movie and a zillion movies I39ll never care to watch are also available If I need a license key for any major piece of software it will take me or you under two seconds to find and download one There is absolutely nothing about this threat that matters amp8211 oh wait yes there isquotWe39ve analyzed their attack sir and there is a danger shall I prepare your shuttlequot quotEvacuate In our moment of triumph I think you overestimate their chancesquot Grand Moff Tarkin moments before the destruction of the Death Star Star Wars 1977Antigua39s plan is to single out one of our most profitable classes of export Intellectual Property and defeat our ability to profit from it in their country Sure we could still send DVDs to the island but who would buy them Legally pirated copies of everything would be available in retail stores for far less money than the imported originals And of course it would be legal to copy upload and download anything and everything to your heart39s contentI39m sure that a diplomatic solution to Antigua39s grievances will happen soon But for purely intellectual reasons it would be fascinating if they actually carried out their threat it would be the first time we could measure the impact of quotalmost free contentquot in a controlled environment It would show the content industry where the bottom is and offer some insights into life without enforceable copyright lawsI know that everything in Antigua would be available online but amp8211 as you know amp8211 everything is already available online So on the island of Antigua nothing about the online world should or would likely change Perhaps a few sites would pop up that shouted quotlegal music for free legal pirated video for freequot But somebody would still want to get paid for the bandwidth and I think the file sharing community on the island would not change muchHowever the retail marketplace on the island might change in a significant way Would you go into a store and see a quotrealquot version of Harry Potter for 1495 and a packaged legally pirated copy for 995 or even 495 Would the legal pirates experience so much competition from each other that the price would drop to just enough money to cover the cost of the disc duplication distribution and retail profit say 300 Or would the pricing stay at 1495 for the DVD preserving the margin for the retailer and dramatically increasing the margin for the distributor no royalties It would be an interesting experiment to be sureMy guess is that the cost of physical copies of everything would drop to the lowest possible retail price point It couldn39t be free but it would be really really cheap DVDs under 5 retail and CDs in the 2 zone On the other hand software would be a real problem No US publisher would even consider customer service or tech support for pirated copies Would this matter Could a consumer function without the ability to call Microsoft Apple or Adobe tech support The short answer is absolutely Purchasing legally pirated software would be only slightly more annoying than purchasing quotrealquot software amp8211 the physical media would be sold at or near the bottom possible priceWhat might really change is the value chain People actually do need customer support technical support and customer service Even for something as simple as a music download It would be interesting to watch the rise of specialized businesses that cater to the needs of the various levels of consumers Robust third party tech support for software new and interesting channelized or branded portals for music and movie distribution and a new more economical physical packaging paradigm Antigua is not a very big marketplace but if it went Pirate we would really learn a lot about how the future information economy might function As for my idea that this is the threat of the 1st InfoWar The flow of information is global and from the Internet39s point of view Antigua is a construct not a country Last week Philip Rosedale cofounder and CEO of Second Life and I had a conversation about the information economy and he said quotin a few years telling someone you39re from China will have about as much meaning as telling them your astrological signquot While even Philip agreed that that might be hyperbole he was pretty sure that where you live in the physical world is starting to have less meaning with respect to your ability to function online If this does become the first international InfoWar it will be about the virtualization of value amp8211 in other word like all wars amp8211 it will be about moneyShelly Palmer is Managing Director of Advanced Media Ventures Group LLC and the author of Television Disrupted The Transition from Network to Networked TV 2006 Focal Press Shelly is also President of the National Academy of Television Arts ampamp Sciences NY the organization that bestows the coveted Emmyamp174 Awards He is the ViceChairman of the National Academy of Media Arts ampamp Sciences an organization dedicated to education and leadership in the areas of technology media and entertainment Palmer also oversees the Advanced Media Technology Emmyamp174 Awards which honors outstanding achievements in the science and technology of advanced media You can read Shelly39s blog here Visit Shelly39s website at wwwShellyPalmerMediacom or reach Shelly at shellypalmernetCheck out the Shelly Palmer Report archive

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SHELLY PALMER REPORT: The 1st InfoWar: Antigua's Copyright Threat and the Virtualization of Value

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