The 2024 Election Will Be a "Brand" Election

So let39s take a look at what the party brands seem to be today based upon actions and messagingThe Republican BrandSeemingly antidemocraticAntiabortionAgainst limiting gun ownershipAntiimmigrant at least nonwhiteQuestionable on social safety net programs such as Social Security Medicare and child careAgainst taxing the wealthyClimate change is a quothoaxquotThe Democratic BrandProdemocracyFor a woman39s right to chooseFor stricter gun lawsGenerally proimmigrantsFully support social net programs such as Social Security Medicare and child careWant to tax the very wealthy and billionairesClimate change is real and must be facedNow let39s take a look at what the polls say about American citizens and votersPro and Anti DemocracyA year ago almost twothirds of Americans thought that US democracy was quotin crisis and at risk of failingquotIn a more recent more demographically targeted poll the same 64 of 1829 adults thought that they have more fear than hope about the future of American democracyPro and AntiAbortionGallup Poll History of Abortion positionsThis is interesting for several reasons Historically those who believe abortion should be legal under any circumstances have always been at or above 50 while those who think abortion should be illegal under any circumstances have been at a high in the low 20s to now the low teens When quotlegal only under certain circumstancesquot which has moved from the low 20s to the now high 30s is added to the quotalways legalquot group it sums to 85 If you put this same group with the quotillegal under any circumstancesquot it is still less than quotlegal under any circumstancesquot 50 to 48Gun ControlThis shows a clear demarcation between the two brandsFinally a 2023 poll by Quinnipiac shows that 61 of American voters support stricter gun controls the highest ever recorded This poll also shows that 97 of those polled think there should be universal background checks and 97 of gun owners think this way This poll also shows that 67 are for banning assaultstyle weapons and 29 againstImmigrationA February 2023 poll about immigration shows that only 28 of people polled are satisfied or somewhat satisfied with the current immigration policy Obviously that means that 72 are not satisfied This same poll showed that 40 of US adults want immigration to decrease with only 8 wanting to increaseSocial Net ProgramsSocial SecurityThis is one issue that has a vast majority of Americans for something76 of all adults favor Social Security83 of Democrats favor72 of Independents favor74 of Republicans favorWhat is interesting is the percentages of these groups when asked whether Social Security should have increased spending57 of adult Americans favor increasing Social Security funding66 of Democrats favor53 of Independents favor54 of Republicans favorThis issue shows a clear demarcation between what Republicans in Washington equivocate on and what even their own party let alone the key group of Independents favorMedicare70 of Americans favor Medicare81 of Democrats favor64 of Republicans favor56 of Democrats would favor increasing funding29 of Republicans favor increasing fundingTaxing the wealthyThis poll asked if quotthe very rich should be allowed to keep the money they have even if that means increasing inequalityquot 54 of respondents disagreedThis same poll found that 64 of respondents quotstrongly or somewhat agreed that the very rich should contribute an extra share of their total wealth each year to support public programsquot the essence of a wealth tax This compares to 77 of Democrats and interestingly 53 of Republicans who agreed This is an interesting data point as the majority of Republicans are in disagreement with the Washington DC RepublicansClimate ChangeThere is great party clarity on this issue The advantage is clearly for the Democratic brand as the average for all US adults is more than twice the RepublicansPolling SummaryOf the seven categories listed at the top of the column the Democrats are in alignment with the general public on six of them Only Immigration seems to tilt to the RepublicansConclusion Brand Democratic is much more in line with adult Americans relative to the issuesNow let39s take a look at some of the candidates for the presidency and where they stand relative to these issuesOf the three frontrunners only Biden aligns with the majority positions of Americans on all issues except immigration The plethora of Republican candidates entering the race for president have yet to fully position themselves on all seven issues So far they seem to align with the positions for Republicans stated at the topWhat if none of the three frontrunners get nominated for whatever reasons This would mean that there would be a lot of candidates in both parties with much lower name recognition Through the course of primary season in 2024 all candidates would work to establish name recognition and to break out of the pack This is where brand will be important as a lesser known candidate who becomes better known after the conventions will still be subject to the party positionsI ran this idea about 2024 being a brand election by someone whose credentials at the national level of politics are impeccable and whose thinking I highly respect This person agreed but pointed out that in the end the election will be decided by quot300000 voters in swing statesquot This person went on to suggest that this group would most likely be moderates or independents This implies a lean to the Democratic brand per the research above On some of these issues adults in general percentages are above what the Republican positions are and less than the ones held by DemocratsThis is important as deeply red states will probably stay red and deeply blue states will stay blue The swing states will decide the election and it looks at this point in time like the Democratic brand seems to be much stronger than the Republican brandFinally name recognition at the top of tickets is much better than downballot We have all voted for judges school board members and county commissioners without knowing who they are and what they stand for When one doesn39t know the candidate they tend to vote for the party they preferIf this stays true up to November 2024 it could be a landslide victory for the Democratic brandPosted at MediaVillage through the Thought Leadership selfpublishing platformClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillageorgMyersBizNet

APPLY FOR JOBS | SUBMIT YOUR RESUME | REGISTER FOR FREE MEDIAVILLAGE CONTENT

The 2024 Election Will Be a "Brand" Election

Author

Publish date

Channel

Archived in

David Houle

APPLY FOR JOBS | SUBMIT YOUR RESUME | REGISTER FOR FREE MEDIAVILLAGE CONTENT

The 2024 Election Will Be a "Brand" Election

Enjoying This Commentary? There's More to Love

David Houle

Cookies