Upfront Yellow Flag: Has the Bull Market Turned Bearish?

72 of Marketers Say Upfront Down or FlatNearly threequarters of brand marketers surveyed by MyersBizNet report this year39s Upfront budgets will be flat to down An additional 19 report budgets will be only slightly more than 201516 Upfront investments Sixtythree percent of media agency executives agree that their clients39 Upfront spending will be flat or less than last year39s budgets Twentyfive percent project only slight growth and 12 anticipate some significant or great growthOne of the primary forces that has been driving bullish Upfront forecasts appears to be a myth While 90 of brand marketers consider ROI Performancebased research to be important and relevant in their media selection process more than 75 of these executives say they do not agree with the suggestion that the shift of national TV budgets from network television to online video advertising is negatively impacting their sales and they are therefore not intending to shift digital budgets back to network TVMore than threequarters of respondents with national TV responsibility express significant concern about increases in national television costsperthousand and ratingsreach erosion Sixtythree percent of these executives are significantly concerned about reduced reach in their national television media plans and 64 percent are significantly concerned about loss of audiences to Netflix Amazon and other overthetop viewing options Twothirds of MyersBizNet respondents with national TV decisionmaking responsibility also believe too much commercial clutter in network TV is a significant concernamp16095 of Marketers Increasing Digital Video InvestmentsIn response to these dynamics 95 of brand marketers and media agency plannersbuyers anticipate increasing their investments in digital video media in this year39s Upfront as an alternative to network television The primary beneficiaries according to the MyersBizNet survey will be Google39s YouTube leading online video sites such as Hulu and Vevo Facebook and digital video networks such as Tremor and Yume Secondary beneficiaries will be spot television second and third tier cable networks national broadcast syndication and unwired national audience networks such as those offered by Cadent and Sinclair NetworksInterestingly 69 of brand marketers surveyed by MyersBizNet identify YouTube as the most viable alternative to network TV followed by Facebook at 52 Conversely only 40 of media agency respondents identify YouTube and 26 name Facebook as the most viable alternatives This reflects the positive and negative impact of the clientdirect priorities of both YouTube and Facebook and agency focus on more costefficient optionsForecasts for scatter market increases are also bearish with 21 of respondents with national TV responsibility reporting they will decline in the next 12 months 43 saying they will be flat and 23 stating they will increase only slightlyUpfrontNewfront Presentations Where39s the BeefWith hundreds of millions of dollars invested in the Upfront and Newfront events scheduled from February through May the industry should take note that 78 of brand marketers and 65 of media agency executives say they do not depend on UpfrontNewfront presentations and events to inform their decisionmaking process Of even more concern 70 of brand marketers and 61 of media agency execs say UpfrontNewfront presentations and events do not make an important contribution to their knowledge of a media sales organizationThere are always concerns in forecasting studies that respondents are purposely using the survey to misdirect the marketplace However after 30 years of conducting similar surveys we and the industry have learned to trust our surveys and believe the vast majority of executives share accurate insights Over the next few weeks MyersBizNet will be following up with qualitative interviews to determine if such Machiavellian pursuits are alive in our industry but we believe they are not In future TomorrowToday reports I will share insights on the value and impact of data marketing branded content and other media company initiatives and will provide guidance for successfully navigating a challenging national television and digital media marketplace Survey results on the competitive effectiveness of radio and print will also be sharedSOURCE MyersBizNet Survey of Advertising and Marketing Executives on Media Effectiveness Conducted April 2016 among 357 respondents Additional insights from the study will be reported in future issues of Jack Myers TomorrowToday and the full report will be provided to MyersBizNet member companies quotSignificantquot in the above data is defined as percent of respondents answering 710 on a tenpoint scale For more details contact jackmediavillagecom

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Upfront Yellow Flag: Has the Bull Market Turned Bearish?

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