2015 –The Last Big Year for Fossil Fuel Use!

The economic significance of this is monumentalamp160 We have seen a collapse in the price of oilamp160 Short of a major catastrophe in Saudi Arabia a possibility we will never see 100barrel oil againamp160 I have forecast this and been saying this for the last yearamp160 The supply of oil is far outstripping demandamp160 OPEC has lost its power to control price because there is a surplus of oilamp160 Countries that have been relying on petroleum exports for their economy will have economic disruptionamp160 Many of these countries think the Middle East Africa and Latin America all have an abundance of sun and wind and will turn to them for their own energy rather than spending money on gas subsidies for their citizensThis is occurring because of a convergence of short and longterm trendsamp160 The transportation and building sectors have become vastly more energy efficient than in 2000 or even 2010amp160 The price of alternative and renewable energy has dropped dramatically in the last ten years and is now comparable in cost to fossil fuels as a source of electricityamp160 There is a rapidly growing critical mass of people who fully see and understand the magnitude of climate changeamp160 This affects everything they do and buyamp160 Climate change is directly tied to fossil fuel useThis significant event will trigger a massive amount of change and perceptual changeamp160 Once it is clear that fossil fuel usage is in decline the financial sector will look at all fossil fuel companies differently They will no longer be a good longterm investmentamp160 Unless they greatly increase dividend payments they will begin to be dropped from investment funds over the next decadeamp160 The key question for fossil fuel companies is how they think of themselves If they think of themselves as coal petroleum or gas companies they will enter into a long slow declineamp160This of course harkens back to a century ago when the railroad companies thought they were in the railroad rather than the transportation business This thinking kept them from entering the automotive or airline industriesamp160 If they had thought otherwise they might have funded the Wright Brothers or partnered with emerging automotive companies in DetroitThe massive fossil fuel companies that dominate the Fortune Global 100 will soon have to make a choiceamp160 Do they move into the rapidly growing alternative and renewable energy sectors to keep growth rates up or do they stay with the product mix they have and maintain profits through evergreater efficienciesamp160 With the price of oil down probably permanently the higher cost of deep ocean exploration strategies will not be economically feasible to foster top line growthSo 2015 will be an extremely significant year in the history of energy amp160Money will flow to solar and wind companiesamp160 Companies such as Tesla Motors and Tesla Energy will both have all the financial support they need and will spawn many other companies to enter the space The transformative reality of new battery technology being able to store variable energy is the game changer amp160Optimism will begin to creep into thinking about climate change that humanity can turn the corner and actually work to lessen the catastrophes rushing towards usSince 2010 I have been saying that 201020 will be the first decade of 21st century thought This is the decade when legacy thinking falls away and the space is filled with new thinking of this centuryamp160 Whatever you think when I say amp822020th centuryamp8221 century of science the century of world war the American century it began 19141918 which brought us WWI the Russian Revolution the General Theory of Relativity the map of Europe as we know it and very unfortunately the map of the Middle East as defined by Europeans at that timeamp160 So all of the story lines of the 20th century began in its second decadeamp160 This is now happening for the 21st centurySo 2015 the middle of the Transformation Decade will mark the beginning of the 21st century era of energyamp160 The fossil fuel era of the last 200 years will give way to the new era of alternative and renewable energyamp160 Of course there will be fossil fuel use for decades to come but both in total output and usage and in share of total energy consumption it will steadily declineamp160 Just in time to face the stark and unprecedented realities of this new centuryThe opinions and points of view expressed in this commentary are exclusively the views of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillageMyersBizNet management or associated bloggers

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2015 –The Last Big Year for Fossil Fuel Use!

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David Houle

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2015 –The Last Big Year for Fossil Fuel Use!

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