Mi-3 Interview with Media Ecologist Jack Myers: No Humans for 80% of Media Planning/Buying by 2030 (AUDIO)

REPUBLISHED FROM Mi3 with permissionFive years ago media ecologist Jack Myers made a prediction in the second ever edition of Mi3 By 2025 media would be largely automated almost totally AIinformed and just a quarter of sales would remain with people and ideas It happened faster than even he thought Now Myers predicts that within 1218 months most media planning will be entirely machineled amp8211 and by 2030 quot80 per cent or more of all media planning and buying will be done without human interventionquot with major implications for jobs Meanwhile AI is already being turned in on itself to spotlight where the money is being wasted amid a quotprogrammatic backlashquot The quotmachines are actually checking on machinesquot says Myers He forecasts an incoming wave of consolidation across major media companies and a quotcollapse of the programmatic marketplacequotFor agencies quotthe reemergence of consolidated agenciesquot ie creative and media back together quotis the big story of 202526quot with generative AI forcing the toothpaste back into the tube quotSo I believe in 202425 we39re going to see massive consolidation massive contraction and then in 2025 26 27 a rebirth of the advertising businessquot But 2025 he warns will be tough Plus Myers who likewise called out retail media39s impact early sees a quotcan of wormsquot for the sector as analysts uncover instances of arbitrage of nonretail inventory within some retail media networks He also has reservations on the surge by media owners into data clean rooms Disney alone is operating 100plus quotWho is cleaning the data Who is validating that it is cleanquotWhat You Need to KnowJack Myers a media ecologist and founder of NYbased MediaVillage predicted both the rapid automation of media planning and buying and the rise of retail mediaWithin five years he now predicts 80 or more of all planning and buying will be done without needing humansPlus while Myers forecasts a good year for media and advertising this year 2025 will mark the start of a major pullback as marketers grapple with AI39s implicationsHe also expects to see rapid consolidation across media and agencies as AI forces creative and media back togetherThere are natural implications for jobs though Myers thinks the young will thrive and overall numbers will stabilizeThe adtech supply chain is likewise set for serious consolidation quota collapsequot per Myers while retail media risks shooting itself in the foot by lifting the arbitrage playbookHe also has serious concerns about the push into data clean rooms though concedes that the data quothave notsquot have little chance of survivalBut midterm Myers sees reasons for optimism predicting a quotrebirthquot of the advertising business from 2026There39s always more in the podcast Get the full download herequotWe39re going to see tremendous shifts and consolidation contraction at all levels and 2025 I believe is going to be a very difficult year for the advertising economy globally the implementation of AI is going to create a lot of reallocation and refocusing of spending and probably a reasonably massive cutback in spending as marketers figure out what39s working and what39s not workingquotamp160 Jack Myers media ecologist ampamp founder MediaVillageJack Myers has form in calling it right early Tapped deep into the US media market for four decades Myers before that studied media ecology at NYU under his mentor the Technopoly author educator and cultural critic Neil Postman who founded the program Postman in turn was mentored by Marshall McLuhan the philosopher and one of the founding fathers of media theory McLuhan coined the term quotthe medium is the messagequot and the quotglobal villagequot enabled by electronic media and predicted the advent of the web some three decades before it was invented McLuhan per Myers quotwas a follower of Aldous Huxleyquot whose depiction of a culturally void society consumed by the spectacle of its own trivial pursuits now risks reclassification as nonfictionA lofty setup perhaps but Myers thinks media and advertising is about to enter a brave new world of its own and a big chunk of it will no longer require humansWithin 1218 months per Myers most media planning will be entirely machine learning led Right now his data shows on average that 45 of all media is traded programmatically in the US and another 25 is automated with human oversight By 2030 he suggests quot80 or more of all media planning and buying will be done without human intervention or without the necessity of humansquot and it will be quotincreasingly impossible for media buying to be done without machine learningquotHumans are already being displaced in part because they have failed to stop the skim within digital media where quot50 60 sometimes even 70 percent of the advertisers39 spend is not getting to the publishersquot Myers suggests For that reason quotWe39re at the beginning stages of a backlash against programmaticquot he says with machines now being deployed to root out fraud false claims and wastagequotWe39re seeing a lot more emphasis on performance on attribution all of those tools are coming under deeper inspection And in an ironic sort of way it39s the AI tools that are doing the inspection Machines are actually checking on machines so increasingly humans are out of the mixquotMore broadly Myers forecasts massive shrinkage across the media supply chain both publishers and the middlemen as one phase of digital disruption completes and another AIled cycle beginsquotWe39re really in the end stage of longterm transformation wrought by digital and the internet in terms of the legacy media companies increasingly consolidatingquot says Myers He points to David Ellison39s son of Oracle cofounder and big Republican donor Larry Ellison imminent deal for Paramount and last week39s ending of a twoyear tax efficient MampampA freeze by Warner Bros Discovery after its deal with ATampampT for WarnerMedia as next likely movers with knockon MampampA following suitClean Room BoomHowever the consolidated landscape ends up Myers thinks data and the ability to monetize it will likely determine winners and losers He points to Disney39s activity in that areaquotDisney for example has over 100 clean rooms Rita Ferro Disney39s advertising president has been very open about the fact that they will create clean rooms where individual advertisers through their agency partners or directly can put their first party data into a dedicated clean room Disney will then take its first party data match it and find the right Disney inventory that39s most relevant for those consumersquot says Myers Plus it39s working with retailers like Kroger via a data matching partnership increasingly the shape of things to come as TV and streaming businesses aim to take a slice of retail media action while retailers head offnetwork into connected TV and hence why the likes of Nine locally are pushing in that directionquotAll the major media companies now are 39haves39 and 39have nots39 If you don39t have first party data through subscriptions through credit cards amp8230 you are screwed fundamentally as a media seller It means you will have to go into a programmatic pool and then the likes of The Trade Desk and others will compile the clean rooms and clean the data before matching with their first party data amp8230 which creates a whole lot of other questions and concernsquot Jack Myers media ecologist ampamp founder MediaVillagequotMy biggest reservation about clean rooms is who is cleaning the data who is validating that it is clean who is judging and making the decisions on how to use that data Is it going to be used for political purposes We are already seeing all of the big social platform data being used to target more effectively for political purposes amp8230 and that just opens a whole can of worms especially with the advent of AI which left unchecked risks society being pushed further towards a more autocratic worldquot says MyersquotBut if you depend on advertisers to be smart and pay attention and make a difference and change things that39s not the right place to look for change unfortunatelyquot amp173amp173 Jack Myers media ecologist ampamp founder MediaVillagequotWe39re on the verge of what I believe will be a major consolidation you could even call it a collapse of the programmatic marketplace in terms of the hundreds of companies that are in the business todayquot Jack Myers media ecologist ampamp founder MediaVillageAdtech Retail Media ImpactsMyers predicts an even bigger upheaval for the ad tech sector at least for all but the biggest playersquotWe39re on the verge of what I believe will be a major consolidation you could even call it a collapse of the programmatic marketplace in terms of the hundreds of companies that are in the business todayquot he says For similar reasons Myers thinks that retail media may be set for some consolidation quotthere39s just too many playersquotMoreover while expecting retail media channels to keep growing dollar share he suggests US analyst Brian Wieser39s forecast of a 51bn retail media market this year in the US alone is an quotunderestimatequot Myers thinks retail media may now start to face similar accusations to those that have dogged the broader programmatic market That is quotwhether they are in fact arbitraging nonretail media inside the retail media networksquotSome such as USbased analytics provider Adalytics think that is the case primarily via Amazon Myers suggests exposure of such behavior risks quotopening another can of wormsquot though others would argue that people have been shouting about made for advertising arbitrage and the rest for years and marketers have paid little heedThen there39s the revival of an old US antitrust law The RobinsonPatman Act now receiving renewed attention from the FTC that may yet come into play In theory it could be used to prevent advertising and pricing discrimination between manufacturers and the different retailers that they use to sell through As such the Act appears at odds with retail media39s fundamentals but has not yet been tested in a retail media context though Coke and Pepsi pricing practices are currently being probedquotThe reemergence of the consolidated agencies creative and media that39s the big story for me for 202526quot Jack Myers media ecologist ampamp founder MediaVillageCreative Media Back TogetherFor agencies Myers forecasts AI39s primary impact will be to push creative and media back together again after decades of separationquotThe reemergence of the consolidated agencies creative and media that39s the big story for me for 202526quot he says quotWith AI it has to start feeding the creative component into the attribution again and look at the two together And that39s going to be where the industry is going to reinvent itselfquotSo I look positively at the opportunities for advertising in the AI age But we39re just moving too quickly for the industry to adapt amp8230 Those who can39t adapt ultimately are going to disappear It39s like retailing if you didn39t adapt to the emergence of ecommerce or find a place in the retail marketplace for in person shopping and experiences you are going to disappearquot says Myers quotSo I believe 202425 we39re going to see massive consolidation massive contraction and then in 25 26 27 a rebirth of the advertising businessquotquotI think those who are in their early stage now will have a long potential career those who are coming into the business now will also have a long potential career Those who have been in the business for 15 yearsplus I think it39s going to be a tough future for themquot Jack Myers media ecologist ampamp founder MediaVillageJob Cuts InevitableSo where does that leave people Local agency bosses have privately conceded to Mi3 that headcount reductions of circa 2030 percent are likely in the next two to three years Some 39stealth39 layoffs have already taken place across both agencies and media groups with rumblings in recent weeks that marketers may likewise be starting to face cutsBut Myers thinks agencies may ultimately endup with similar headcounts and will just move people out of the areas that become machineled and into other parts of the fullservice agencies that still require more human input Though in most cases he predicts young talent will more quickly displace older handsquotAs the current generation evolves there are more diverse they39re more scientific they39re more dataoriented they will be more likely to have a place in this future business than those who are currently in the business 15 yearsplus who are going to be increasingly outdatedquot per MyersquotSo I think those who are in their early stage now will have a long potential career those who are coming into the business now will also have a long potential career Those who have been in the business for 15 yearsplus I think it39s going to be a tough future for themquotquot2025 is the year of decline disruption economic concerns some real failures and massive consolidation and then 26 27 28 is the beginning of what I think will be several decades of a reimagined industryquot Jack Myers media ecologist ampamp founder MediaVillageNecessary Growing PainsIn fairness Myers thinks it39s going to be tough for everybody at least for a couple of yearsquot2024 the media and advertising economy will continue to be strong The holding companies will continue to look good in the stock marketquot he predictsAfter that he39s forecasting pain for mostquotWe39re going to see tremendous shifts and consolidation contraction at all levels and 2025 I believe is going to be a very difficult year for the advertising economy globally for a variety of reasonsquot says Myers quotNot least of which will be that the implementation of AI is going to create a lot of need for reallocation and refocusing of spending and probably a reasonably massive cutback in spending as marketers figure out what39s working and what39s not workingquotBut Myers thinks that pain will be shortlived a turf burning that clears the ground for new growthquotIn 202627 I believe we39re going to see a reemergence of the combination of creative and media and AI becoming more of a force and the marketplace beginning to sort itself outquot per Myers quotSo 2024 is going to look pretty much like what you39re already seeing in the marketplace in the first half 2025 is the year of decline disruption economic concerns some real failures and massive consolidation and then 26 27 28 is the beginning of what I think will be several decades of a reimagined industryquotThere39s always more in the podcast Get the full download hereamp160amp160

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Mi-3 Interview with Media Ecologist Jack Myers: No Humans for 80% of Media Planning/Buying by 2030 (AUDIO)

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