BOTTOM LINE: We have analyzed US-based national TV network group-level ratings trends with related ad revenue trends and then compared that data with an analysis connecting commercial share changes to revenue share changes. We have confirmed our prior belief that ratings changes by themselves add very little in forecasting revenue growth trends. At the same time, we have confirmed that commercial audience share changes are strongly correlated with revenue share changes. We believe that investors should generally focus on commercial share changes metrics rather than ratings changes. These metrics combined with assessments of the general state of growth or decline of all advertising and national TV's share of total advertising are best positioned to help assess growth trends for individual TV network groups, as we explain further in this note. Charts with related data involving 14 quarters of growth rates across nine major national TV network owners are included as well.
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