2Q17 advertising likely grew around +5% in the United States during 2Q17 against despite a -1% decline in national TV advertising and double digit declines for many other media. Digital advertising captured more than all of the industry’s growth in the quarter, and marketers who are organized around digital media appear to be driving these trends. While the full year 2017 now looks set to grow between +4 to +5%, these advertising growth trends are not far removed from where our historical model predicts they should be, reinforcing our view that a model forecasting annual growth in media owner ad revenue of around +3% seems to be the right one. If correct, this further reinforces our view that digital media owners will see deceleration of growth of domestic ad revenue into the low ‘teens and then high single digits within several years’ time, constraining Google and Facebook in particular given their dominance of that medium.
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