We have updated our US-based media owner ad revenue forecast. For 2016 we now estimate normalized (ex-incremental political and Olympic) advertising industry growth of +4.5% vs. our +2.8% forecast from December. Despite underlying economic conditions that can be described as mixed, advertising has grown much faster than we might have otherwise expected during the first half of the year. Now that IAB data is in, it appears likely that advertising grew in the +6-7% range during the first quarter. The second quarter is likely growing at a slightly slower pace. From here, we think sustained deceleration should be likely in the second half, producing a growth rate for the industry that would be the fastest seen since 2005.
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