Network television advertising revenues will grow this decade at six times the rate of growth generated between 2000 and 2010, according to the new 2000-2020 Media and Marketing Investment Report from Jack Myers Media Business Report, available exclusively to corporate subscribers. Over the past decade, broadcast network ad revenues increased 8.9% from $17.0 billion to $18.5 billion, tracking well below the rate of inflation. The new Myers forecast projects annual broadcast network ad revenues in 2020 at $29.4 billion, a 10-year growth rate averaging 6.0% annually. (See detailed annual growth chart below.) A significant contributor will be digital ad revenues, which Myers forecasts will increase from $750 million in 2010 to $7.6 billion in 2020, representing 26% of total broadcast network advertising. Traditional broadcast network commercial ad revenues are forecast to increase an average 2.1% annually, while digital revenues will grow almost 30% annually. Between 2000 and 2010, broadcast networks’ share of total marketing communications budgets remained steady at 3.1%. In 2020, Myers projects that broadcast networks will capture 3.9% of the total $760 billion in marketers’ advertising and promotional spending. See our 2011 broadcast network TV market update below.

Jack Myers Media Business Report          
Broadcast Network TV Advertising Investments/Forecast    
Traditional and Digital Ad Spending          
2010-2020              
                 
000,000                
Year Total Bcst Network TV -Traditional Advertising   Bcst Network TV - Digital Advertising
  $ $ % Change % Share   $ % Change % Share
                 
2010 18,486 17,736 5.4% 95.9   750 40.0% 4.1
2011 19,305 18,179 2.5% 94.2   1,126 50.0% 5.8
2012 20,071 18,270 0.5% 91.0   1,801 60.0% 9.0
2013 21,065 18,544 1.5% 88.0   2,521 40.0% 12.0
2014 22,348 19,008 2.5% 85.1   3,341 32.5% 14.9
2015 23,659 19,483 2.5% 82.3   4,176 25.0% 17.7
2016 25,078 20,067 3.0% 80.0   5,011 20.0% 20.0
2017 26,432 20,669 3.0% 78.2   5,763 15.0% 21.8
2018 27,537 21,083 2.0% 76.6   6,454 12.0% 23.4
2019 28,264 21,293 1.0% 75.3   6,971 8.0% 24.7
2020 29,410 21,826 2.5% 74.2   7,584 8.8% 25.8
Source: Jack Myers Media Business Report© copyright 2011        
                 

SOURCE: Jack Myers Media Business Report Media & Marketing Investment Forecast December 2010. Source details available here.

The detailed annual 2010-2020 forecasts for 55 media and marketing categories are available to subscribers at www.jackmyers.com. Subscribers have passcode access. If you require your User ID and/or password, contact maryann@jackmyers.com.

BROADCAST/CABLE NETWORK TV MARKET UPDATE

The TV and digital ad markets continue to show signs that growth will be robust into the foreseeable future. Upfront market indicators are suggesting across-the-board CPM increases in the mid-to-high single digits, with selected deals potentially breaking the double digit CPM growth barrier. James Dix, analyst at Wedbush, reports that “broadcast prime time revenue is tracking up double digits in March quarter, with CBS tracking up mid-to high-teens; cable networks are gaining share from broadcast in prime time revenue in the March quarter, with Viacom's MTV one beneficiary, tracking up roughly 20% in prime time revenue; and American Idol's continued dominance is helping to maintain FOX's healthy premium in average unit price in prime time.” Even with no Olympics and election money, and with a possible NFL strike on the horizon, both broadcast and cable networks are expressing confidence that they will be successful in generating sufficient CPM and revenue increases to offset mid-single digit year-to-year ratings erosion in most dayparts.

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