The data table below reflects the consolidated U.S. marketing communications investments for 2011 with forecasts for 2012 to 2014. Each marketing/media category incorporates spending across all platforms within that category. Comprehensive breakdowns on digital and legacy advertising investments in each medium are available at www.jackmyers.com/jack-myers-spending-forecast. What has been referred to as "below-the-line" marketing budgets (sales promotion, direct marketing, PR, event marketing, customer relationship management) is forecast to decline by nearly $32 billion annually between 2011 and 2014. These budgets are feeding the more than $15 billion growth forecast in 2014 compared to 2011 in marketers' spending on social marketing, search, online video, mobile, gaming, interactive TV and other digital marketing tools.

This is the most thorough marketing spending data available, reflecting both above and below-the-line budgets. While confirming the strength of digital marketing, the data also reflects the continued vitality of the national television advertising business, which is forecast to increase by $5.5 billion in 2014 over its 2011 levels. Consumer magazines, local television and radio will remain stable during this period, contrary to the forecasts of several agency forecasters.

The report below (also available at http://www.jackmyers.com/jack-myers-spending-forecast) includes total dollars invested, percentage of annual growth/decline in spending, and each category's share of the total marketing communications pie. For more information, contact Jack Myers at jm@jackmyers.com.

Jack Myers Media Business Report            
Official Marketing / Advertising Spending Data: 2011-2014        
UPDATED 02-6-2012    Data reported  in 000,000            
  2011 2012
  % Change $ % Share % Change $ % Share
             
Direct-to-Trade Promotion/Slotting Allowances 2.4% 170,129 29.0 0.0% 170,129 28.7
Consumer Sales Promotion/Coupons -2.6% 143,689 24.5 -2.1% 140,629 23.8
Direct Mail/ E-Mail Marketing (All Platforms) -6.9% 47,596 8.1 -10.3% 42,706 7.2
Newspaper Advertising (Print + All Platforms) -8.1% 27,349 4.7 -2.8% 26,590 4.5
Local & National Spot Broadcast TV(All Platforms) -10.9% 20,721 3.5 15.1% 23,849 4.0
Cable/Satellite Network Television (All Platforms) 8.3% 22,438 3.8 9.0% 24,457 4.1
Broadcast Network TV (All Platforms) 1.5% 18,762 3.2 5.0% 19,708 3.3
Experiential/Event Marketing 0.0% 18,450 3.1 2.5% 18,911 3.2
Consumer Magazines Advertising (Print + All Platforms) 1.2% 16,594 2.8 -0.2% 16,559 2.8
Terrestrial Radio (All Platforms) 1.1% 16,159 2.8 4.6% 16,895 2.9
Search Marketing (Online/Mobile) 17.0% 14,622 2.5 12.0% 16,377 2.8
Yellow Pages (Print + Digital) -7.8% 11,118 1.9 -8.3% 10,194 1.7
Media Directed Social/Promotion/Sponsorships 7.0% 12,194 2.1 7.5% 13,109 2.2
Branded Entertainment/Product Placement 5.0% 8,395 1.4 4.5% 8,773 1.5
Out-of-Home/Place-Based (excl. Cinema & P-O-I) 3.4% 6,619 1.1 4.0% 6,884 1.2
Business-to-Business Magazines (Print + All Platforms) -4.5% 6,081 1.0 -7.5% 5,624 1.0
Online Originated Display Advertising 20.0% 6,290 1.1 15.0% 7,233 1.2
Local/Regional Cable TV (All Platforms) -0.2% 4,757 0.8 9.3% 5,198 0.9
Offline Public Relations -3.5% 4,377 0.7 -2.0% 4,290 0.7
Broadcast Syndication (All Platforms) 6.4% 2,423 0.4 -1.3% 2,391 0.4
Custom Publishing/Site Development (Print & Digital) -0.8% 1,698 0.3 0.5% 1,706 0.3
Social Marketing/WOM/Conversational Marketing 40.0% 1,680 0.3 60.0% 2,688 0.5
Videogame Advertising/Virtual Currency 24.0% 1,295 0.2 40.0% 1,813 0.3
Mobile & Apps Advertising 40.0% 1,279 0.2 32.0% 1,689 0.3
Cinema Advertising (All Platforms) -4.2% 708 0.1 1.6% 720 0.1
Point-of-Influence/GPS [P-O-I] (Multi-Platform) 12.0% 748 0.1 12.0% 838 0.1
Satellite/Internet Originated Radio  17.0% 451 0.1 22.0% 550 0.1
Online Originated Video Content Advertising  50.0% 675 0.1 75.0% 1,181 0.2
Interactive, VOD & Addressable TV Advertising 40.0% 70 0.0 70.0% 119 0.0
TOTAL - U.S. Only -0.2% $587,367 100.0 0.8% $591,809 100.0
             
Source: Jack Myers Media Business Report© copyright 2012          
             
RED: Below-the-line Marketing Budgets            
BLACK: Above-the-line advertising budgets            
             
             
  2013 2014
  % Change $ % Share % Change $ % Share
             
Direct-to-Trade Promotion/Slotting Allowances 0.0% 170,129 29.2 -3.5% 164,175 28.2
Consumer Sales Promotion/Coupons -2.8% 136,739 23.4 -2.1% 133,930 23.0
Direct Mail/ E-Mail Marketing (All Platforms) -15.7% 36,009 6.2 -12.0% 31,673 5.4
Newspaper Advertising (Print + All Platforms) -5.1% 25,234 4.3 -4.4% 24,122 4.1
Local & National Spot Broadcast TV(All Platforms) -15.6% 20,139 3.5 7.5% 21,641 3.7
Cable/Satellite Network Television (All Platforms) 4.8% 25,640 4.4 4.8% 26,861 4.6
Broadcast Network TV (All Platforms) -0.1% 19,681 3.4 1.2% 19,922 3.4
Experiential/Event Marketing 2.0% 19,289 3.3 4.0% 20,061 3.4
Consumer Magazines Advertising (Print + All Platforms) -0.4% 16,489 2.8 1.5% 16,730 2.9
Terrestrial Radio (All Platforms) -2.1% 16,536 2.8 2.5% 16,945 2.9
Search Marketing (Online/Mobile) 12.0% 18,342 3.1 8.0% 19,809 3.4
Yellow Pages (Print + Digital) -10.1% 9,168 1.6 -8.4% 8,400 1.4
Media Directed Social/Promotion/Sponsorships 8.5% 14,223 2.4 12.0% 15,930 2.7
Branded Entertainment/Product Placement 3.0% 9,036 1.5 5.0% 9,488 1.6
Out-of-Home/Place-Based (excl. Cinema & P-O-I) 2.8% 7,077 1.2 3.1% 7,296 1.3
Business-to-Business Magazines (Print + All Platforms) -6.6% 5,251 0.9 -2.5% 5,118 0.9
Online Originated Display Advertising 8.0% 7,812 1.3 8.2% 8,453 1.5
Local/Regional Cable TV (All Platforms) -3.9% 4,994 0.9 5.5% 5,268 0.9
Offline Public Relations -3.0% 4,161 0.7 -4.0% 3,995 0.7
Broadcast Syndication (All Platforms) 0.9% 2,414 0.4 -2.3% 2,359 0.4
Custom Publishing/Site Development (Print & Digital) -2.7% 1,661 0.3 -3.1% 1,609 0.3
Social Marketing/WOM/Conversational Marketing 60.0% 4,301 0.7 40.0% 6,021 1.0
Videogame Advertising/Virtual Currency 25.0% 2,266 0.4 22.0% 2,764 0.5
Mobile & Apps Advertising 35.0% 2,280 0.4 30.0% 2,964 0.5
Cinema Advertising (All Platforms) 6.8% 769 0.1 5.0% 807 0.1
Point-of-Influence/GPS [P-O-I] (Multi-Platform) 4.5% 875 0.2 9.6% 959 0.2
Satellite/Internet Originated Radio  9.0% 600 0.1 18.0% 707 0.1
Online Originated Video Content Advertising  70.0% 2,008 0.3 60.0% 3,213 0.6
Interactive, VOD & Addressable TV Advertising 120.0% 262 0.0 85.0% 484 0.1
TOTAL - U.S. Only -1.4% $583,384 100.0 -0.3% $581,705 100.0
             
Source: Jack Myers Media Business Report© copyright 2012          
             
RED: Below-the-line Marketing Budgets            
BLACK: Above-the-line advertising budgets            
             
             

Source: Media Advisory Corp, Inc., Jack Myers and employees accept no responsibility for any action(s) taken as a result of this forecast. 2011-2014 are estimates. Myers Data has been recalibrated in 2010 to reflect updated industry insights, plus a proprietary calculation of the share of digital revenues being invested in each legacy medium. New categories have been added. Direct mail/e-mail data has been recalibrated to reflect new industry information. The traditional separation of above and below the line budgets has been eliminated. This data should not be used in comparison to prior Myers economic reports for 2009 and prior years, but should be presented independently to prior forecasts and marketing spending estimates. Facebook display ads included in display category. This forecast excludes Olympics but includes NFL, NCAA and other sports programming. References: Barclays Capital, BIA/Kelsey, CAB, Carat, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank Equity Research, DMA, eMarketer, Goldman Sachs, GroupM, IAB, JPMorgan Chase, Kantar Research, Magna Global, Morgan Stanley, MPA, Needham & Co., Nielsen, Nomura, PricewaterhouseCoopers RAB, TvB, UBS, Veronis Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast, Wachovia, Wedbush, Zenith Optimedia.

 

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