Let's Not Underestimate Our Ability to Control Frequency Now

This will be a new flexible platform that all can share while expressing their individual differencesThe transition hasamp160been planned so that there will be no damage to any parties That was careful thinkingThe core benefit that everyone remembers as the prime mover of the project is to improve the ability to impose effective frequency caps So fewer citizens get turned off to a brand that is perceived to have bombarded themamp160I use quotcitizensquot following Rishad Tobaccowala39s thinking expressed at CIMMYet the platform will have far more benefit than thatIt will become a common languageIt will offer the bestofclass data and analyticsIt will protect privacy to the hilt amp160even adding noise on purposeIt will have economies of scaleIt will not have a monopoly because it will coexist within a galaxy of other data and analytics constantly evolving literally day to day Whole new companies will spring up competing to combine all your data and analytics on your phonequotAhh But it39s howamp160they are combinedquot they will all sayAnd in fact by espousing both panels and big data the platform indicates that all the JICs in the world have nodded agreement to legitimizing big data to such a degree That is a positive world change for the industry Everyone was of course always using big data But it sat at the kid39s tableNow will come the data science math games to put the datasets together using AI with more empirical science to optimize how panel and big data are best combined The oldfashioned way of conforming big data to small data amp160given the reality of the majority of the world population would never join a panel amp160is not a world class notionThe platform makes it easy to test out different notions of how to combine big and little data And itamp160will create a consensual reality that shall be calibrated to empirical reality better and better over timeAction ItemGiven that it will be years before all of these things have come to pass I39ll now shift to focusing on what I think we should be doing in the meantimeIn this post let39s tackle the main event frequency capping How can we do that better today than we have been doing itGoing back to the roots of reach frequency RF it has always been possible to accurately estimate frequency received by specific cohorts In the figure above you can see that before further dicing there are seven naturally occurring cohorts for which we would want to estimate frequency That39s because of the way that audience duplication works With just three media vehicles you have seven natural frequency cohortsToday it39s common to have hundreds and thousands of media vehicles operating at the same time for a single campaign But math that has been around a long time and has been applied in creating measurement and analytic technologies for a half century deals with the problem either by deterministic measurement or estimation using probability theory known in EMEA as Sainsbury and canonical duplication patterns between pairs etc known in EMEA as Agostini In the US canonical cume curves have been developed and improved From this body of work plus new methods we are able today to come very close to the RF data that will come from the platformI39m writing this here so that in the day to day we can accelerate a large part of the achievement sought as one of the reasons the platform is neededWe can estimate the campaign frequency and size of any cohort that can be defined operationally My company has built a system OptiBrain to do that right now with any panel or big data in the world However many of you reading this right now already have similar systems or your agency does I recommend that you start there and find out what tools you already have to start whacking away at the excess frequency problem yourself right nowOne benefit will be greater reach so long as you do not increase the CPM against your target Whatever comes out of frequency goes to reach Without spending more you get more reachYou39ll need to shift more from nonaddressable to addressable media as soon as possible to achieve this You can39t shift it all to addressable because addressable TV doesn39t yet reach everybody OTT part reaches 80 million homes in US MVPD addressable TV reaches 60 million so you have to leave a lot in linear TV to maximize target reach with premium impact If you buy correctly in addressable media your CPM against your target will go down not upCable MVPDs have very little geographic overlap with one another so if you set frequency caps within Cable MVPD addressable TV silos spillin from another Cable MVPD addressable TV silo will be negligible No such natural guardrails exist with any other media types Frequency will spill into any buy you make from all your other buys You are best off to get the controlled frequency you want with the best targeting and context resonance with the fewest highimpact premium mediaMost buying today is quite different with tons of excess impressions bought without regard for context resonance and most of it nonpremium having shallow impact This results in mammoth overages in frequency although impact and reach typically both fall short This is why optimizers are importantThe most recent study shows the ROAS dominance of TV and Advanced TV over other addressable media so in all analyses make sure to look at it by media types as well as by cohorts and creative executionsEven though the addressable suppliers of premium video nonpremium videoamp160and display do tend to be siloed the existing RF estimation technology of the world masters this siloing problem with very decent estimates That39s close enough to rely upon for improved decision making It is probably already available to you right now and something you can gin up with little effort and big gainBecause the big benefitamp160is the better citizen experience with your ads That39s what motivated the advertisers of the world to rise up and make the platform happen And guess what It will work That and the evolution of even more empathetic creative will in time make citizens far more receptive and friendly to advertisers than ever before It will show itself in ROI and in brand equity therefore in stock values and the overall world economyClick the social buttons to share this story with colleagues and friendsThe opinions expressed here are the author39s views and do not necessarily represent the views of MediaVillagecomMyersBizNetamp160

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Let's Not Underestimate Our Ability to Control Frequency Now

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Bill Harvey

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Let's Not Underestimate Our Ability to Control Frequency Now

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